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Metagame Mentor: Standard Win Rates and Lessons from Pro Tour Secrets of Strixhaven

May 07, 2026
Frank Karsten

Hello, and welcome back to Metagame Mentor, your weekly guide to the top decks and latest Constructed developments from Magic's most prestigious events. Pro Tour Secrets of Strixhaven delivered an exciting weekend of innovative Standard decks that pushed the format in new directions, as if an entire class of deck builders had just aced their final exam.

After three days of high-level competition and razor-close matches between the world's finest Magic players, Nathan Steuer emerged as the Pro Tour champion, defeating Christoffer Larsen in a Selesnya Landfall mirror in the finals. With this victory, the Duelist of the Mind added a second Pro Tour trophy to his résumé—including his Magic World Championship XXVIII title—marking another impressive chapter in an already remarkable career.

Congratulations to Nathan Steuer, Pro Tour Secrets of Strixhaven champion!


While the Pro Tour measured skill across both Limited and Standard, today's article will focus exclusively on the Standard rounds and examining win rates and standout decks from the tournament. By setting aside the draft portion and looking beyond just the Top 8, we can capture a broader perspective on the key Standard takeaways from the event.

The Standard Win Rates at the Pro Tour

The Pro Tour Secret of Strixhaven metagame breakdown made one thing immediately clear: Izzet decks were everywhere. Izzet Prowess alone made up 30% of the field, and collectively, Izzet Prowess, Izzet Spellementals, Izzet Lessons, and Izzet Maestro accounted for a staggering 49% of the metagame. This underscored the dominance of Steam Vents, Riverpyre Verge, and Spirebluff Canal. Nevertheless, there was meaningful strategic variety among the blue-red decks, with no nonland cards shared universally across all Izzet variants. For example, the Spellementals deck and Lessons deck that ultimately reached the Top 8 did not use Stormchaser's Talent—a staple in Izzet Prowess. Meanwhile, the rest of the field was well-prepared with finely crafted game plans to keep Izzet Prowess in check.

Below, you'll find a table with each archetype's non-mirror, non-draw, non-bye match record from the Standard Swiss rounds, along with the corresponding win rate in those matches. Each archetype name links to a representative sample decklist.

Archetype Number of Players Record and Win Rate
Selesnya Ouroboroid 2 14-4-0 (77.8%)
Bant Rhythm 2 13-7-0 (65.0%)
Boros Dragons 2 9-5-0 (64.3%)
Selesnya Landfall 11 65-37-0 (63.7%)
Mardu Discard 3 17-11-0 (60.7%)
Mono-Green Landfall 62 230-175-3 (56.8%)
Selesnya Rhythm 3 13-11-0 (54.2%)
Rakdos Discard 2 8-7-0 (53.3%)
Dimir Excruciator 6 25-24-0 (51.0%)
Izzet Spellementals 26 100-97-0 (50.8%)
Simic Omniscience 5 20-20-1 (50.0%)
Simic Rhythm 2 4-4-0 (50.0%)
Bant Omniscience 1 2-2-1 (50.0%)
Izzet Prowess 99 262-268-3 (49.4%)
Izzet Lessons 24 82-87-0 (48.5%)
Sultai Control 5 19-21-0 (47.5%)
Azorius Prison 8 28-33-0 (45.9%)
Jeskai Control 12 43-53-1 (44.8%)
Four-Color Control 4 10-13-0 (43.5%)
Golgari Midrange 8 27-40-0 (40.3%)
Four-Color Elementals 4 12-18-0 (40.0%)
Bant Airbending 1 4-6-0 (40.0%)
Mono-Red Aggro 3 9-14-0 (39.1%)
Azorius Momo 14 36-57-0 (38.7%)
Izzet Maestro 9 17-34-0 (33.3%)
Temur Omniscience 1 3-7-0 (30.0%)
Dimir Midrange 1 1-3-1 (25.0%)
Golgari Control 1 1-4-0 (20.0%)
Temur Lute 1 0-4-0 (0.0%)
Boros Discard 1 0-3-0 (0.0%)
Temur Lessons 1 0-2-0 (0.0%)
Golgari Kona 1 0-3-0 (0.0%)

Despite entering the weekend as the deck to beat, Izzet Prowess ultimately fell short of expectations, posting a modest 49.4% win rate against the rest of the field. (Note that mirror matches are excluded from these numbers.) When the dust settled, there were no Izzet Prowess decks in the Top 8. The other Izzet builds did not fare much better, with Izzet Maestro failing to live up to its early hype. While Molten-Core Maestro can enable a sweet infinite combo alongside two copies of Sorceress's Schemes, that ambitious strategy proved more theoretical than practical, winning only about a third of its matches.

Among the more established Izzet variants (namely Prowess, Lessons, and Spellementals), the results were strikingly similar. Their win rates hovered around the average, with no statistically significant differences separating them. I dug deeper into individual builds to see if card choices made a notable difference. For example, roughly half of the Izzet Lessons decks adopted Stormchaser's Talent, while the other half passed on it, and the creatures in Izzet Prowess lists included a range of options, like Eddymurk Crab, Slickshot Show-Off, and Colorstorm Stallion. However. I was not able to identify any statistically significant or insightful differences in performance. In essence, all three established Izzet variants delivered comparable, middle-of-the-pack performances in a metagame that had clearly studied for the Izzet Prowess matchup.

Instead, the real overachievers of the weekend were the Landfall strategies. Mono-Green and, in particular, Selesnya builds posted excellent win rates, quietly climbing to the top of the class. Four Landfall decks made it all the way to the Top 8. While Izzet decks dominated in popularity, it was Landfall that earned top marks in performance, a result that will almost certainly reshape the Standard metagame in the weeks ahead.

Standard Decks and Players with Seven or More Wins

As a reference, here are all decks that secured at least seven non-bye Standard wins at Pro Tour Secrets of Strixhaven, sorted by their combined non-bye Swiss and Top 8 record in descending order of win rate:

Next, let's take a closer look at several top-performing decks and the lessons to take away from this tournament.

Selesnya Landfall Won the Pro Tour

4 Erode 1 Surrak, Elusive Hunter 2 Lumbering Worldwagon 2 Bushwhack 4 Earthbender Ascension 2 Temple Garden 7 Forest 4 Sazh's Chocobo 2 Icetill Explorer 1 Keen-Eyed Curator 4 Llanowar Elves 4 Badgermole Cub 4 Fabled Passage 2 Dyadrine, Synthesis Amalgam 4 Hushwood Verge 4 Mightform Harmonizer 3 Escape Tunnel 2 Plains 3 Ba Sing Se 1 Mossborn Hydra 2 Surrak, Elusive Hunter 3 Sheltered by Ghosts 1 Restoration Magic 1 Kutzil, Malamet Exemplar 2 Mossborn Hydra 3 Rest in Peace 2 Snakeskin Veil 1 Voice of Victory

Cosmos Heavy Play teammates Christoffer Larsen and Nathan Steuer faced off in a mirror match for the trophy, and Selesnya Landfall emerged as the undeniable breakout deck of the event. Its core game plan, built around using Fabled Passage or Escape Tunnel to grow Sazh's Chocobo and Mightform Harmonizer into towering threats, was already well established in Standard, winning roughly 63% of its matches against Izzet Prowess at the Pro Tour. Landfall decks benefited from Izzet Prowess players shaving Elusive Otter to improve their own mirror matches. Yet it was the white splash that added a new layer of power, unlocking distinctive advantages that pushed the deck to the next level.

Erode [6lwCsLsfHeImY5sdkSgOBy]
Dyadrine, Synthesis Amalgam [57BPfbT6jJBHsVcQuHya6y]
Rest in Peace

Erode offers a crucial instant-speed answer to threats like Slickshot Show-Off, Eddymurk Crab, or Mightform Harmonizer, allowing you to disrupt otherwise inevitable kills at precisely the right moment. This advantage played a major role in the Swiss rounds, where Selesnya Landfall had a favorable matchup against Mono-Green Landfall. At the same time, Erode can target your own creatures, enabling additional landfall triggers when needed. Using Erode on your own earthbent land effectively transforms the removal spell into a Rampant Growth with two landfall triggers attached, providing a level of flexibility that few cards can match.

The white splash also unlocks Dyadrine, Synthesis Amalgam, which forms a powerful card-advantage engine alongside Sazh's Chocobo. Alternatively, you can remove a +1/+1 counter from a land that has been animated by Badgermole Cub, causing it to die and return to the battlefield, providing another landfall trigger. Finally, sideboard options like Sheltered by Ghosts and Rest in Peace give the deck tools that Mono-Green Landfall simply cannot access. While these options come at the cost of Sapling Nursery and require a slightly less-consistent mana base, the white splash proved its worth throughout the weekend. Steuer credited Javier Dominguez and his teammates for their innovation and meticulous tuning of the final list, a group project that clearly earned top marks.

There were a few subtle differences between the builds of Nathan Steuer and finalist Christoffer Larsen. Steuer opted for a second Icetill Explorer in the main deck, while Larsen preferred a second copy of Surrak, Elusive Hunter. Their sideboards also diverged slightly: Steuer included Restoration Magic; Surrak, Elusive Hunter; and Voice of Victory in his final slots, while Larsen ran a fourth copy of Sheltered by Ghosts, a third copy of Mossborn Hydra, and a third copy of Snakeskin Veil. These tweaks reflect personal preferences and different metagame expectations, but at their core, both players wielded the same finely tuned archetype. After its commanding performance with a mirror in the finals, Selesnya Landfall seems poised to graduate to the top of the Standard metagame in the weeks ahead.

Selesnya Ouroboroid Also Broke Out

4 Hushwood Verge 4 Sage of the Skies 2 Meltstrider's Resolve 4 Starting Town 4 Abandoned Air Temple 4 Keen-Eyed Curator 4 Pawpatch Recruit 4 Temple Garden 2 Plains 3 Seam Rip 4 Llanowar Elves 6 Forest 1 Nurturing Pixie 3 Gene Pollinator 4 Badgermole Cub 3 Brightglass Gearhulk 4 Ouroboroid 3 Erode 1 Craterhoof Behemoth 1 Focus Fire 1 Insidious Fungus 3 Rest in Peace 2 Spider Manifestation 4 Nature's Rhythm

The Top 8 featured yet another breakout Selesnya deck. The night before deck submission, Team TCGplayer assembled a Selesnya Ouroboroid list, and the result was nothing short of remarkable. The deck shares significant overlap with a more traditional Selesnya Rhythm build, but in anticipation of an Izzet Prowess-heavy field, they effectively swapped the roles of their main deck and sideboard. Cards like Sage of the Skies, Keen-Eyed Curator, and Pawpatch Recruit moved into the main deck, while Spider Manifestation, Nature's Rhythm, and Craterhoof Behemoth were relegated to the sideboard.

Matt Nass and Ma Noah were the only two players to register the deck, yet they achieved the highest win rate of any deck in the tournament. The configuration struck an ideal balance of disruptive creatures that can block Slickshot Show-Off, exile Izzet players' graveyards, and punish opponents for relying on removal spells, all while maintaining a strong position against Landfall strategies.

Seam Rip
Gene Pollinator
Brightglass Gearhulk

In matchups where both players rely on Badgermole Cub to ramp into explosive, game-ending turns, the most important thing is usually who plays more mana creatures and who can kill them most efficiently. With Seam Rip, Gene Pollinator, and Brightglass Gearhulk in the main deck, this list gains a crucial edge against other ramp-focused decks, and an unanswered Ouroboroid threatens to spiral out of control. The deck's matchup against Landfall gets even better after sideboarding, when Sage of the Skies, Keen-Eyed Curator, and Pawpatch Recruit are replaced by Spider Manifestation, Nature's Rhythm, and Craterhoof Behemoth.

Rhythm Answers Landfall

2 Mockingbird 4 Gene Pollinator 4 Llanowar Elves 4 Spider Manifestation 4 Badgermole Cub 1 Keen-Eyed Curator 2 Brightglass Gearhulk 2 Ouroboroid 4 Quantum Riddler 1 Craterhoof Behemoth 4 Nature's Rhythm 4 Seam Rip 1 Unable to Scream 1 Meltstrider's Resolve 2 Botanical Sanctum 4 Breeding Pool 1 Floodfarm Verge 1 Forest 2 Hallowed Fountain 4 Hushwood Verge 4 Starting Town 4 Temple Garden 1 Get Lost 3 Rest in Peace 2 Disdainful Stroke 3 Spider-Sense 3 Sage of the Skies 2 Wistfulness 1 Keen-Eyed Curator

After the Selesnya Landfall mirror in the finals of the Pro Tour, I'd expect the deck to soar ahead in popularity at upcoming Standard events. If that ends up being the case, one of the best and most time-tested answers would be a traditional Nature's Rhythm strategy, such as the one that Koki Hara took to a 7-3 Standard record at the Pro Tour. Its Game 1 configuration may be somewhat weaker against Izzet Prowess compared to Matt Nass's more tailored build, but it compensates by having access to a more powerful and proactive plan of ramping quickly into Craterhoof Behemoth, allowing this deck to simply go over the top of Landfall decks.

If Selesnya Landfall does indeed become the deck to beat, then Rhythm strategies should be well-positioned. Historically, they have enjoyed a favorable matchup against Landfall, and the results from this Pro Tour reaffirm that dynamic. As for specific Landfall builds, I don't have a strong preference between Selesnya, Bant, or Simic variants. Still, Koki Hara's Bant list provides a compelling blueprint.

Azorius Prison Let Faust Prove His Mastery

4 High Noon 4 Floodpits Drowner 1 Restless Anchorage 4 Aang, Swift Savior 2 Avatar's Wrath 4 Starting Town 4 Aven Interrupter 2 Get Lost 4 Floodfarm Verge 4 Hallowed Fountain 4 Skycoach Conductor 4 Island 4 Voice of Victory 2 Spell Snare 2 Multiversal Passage 1 Beza, the Bounding Spring 1 Airbender Ascension 2 Abandoned Air Temple 4 Plains 3 Quantum Riddler 2 Disdainful Stroke 2 Seam Rip 1 Pyrrhic Strike 2 Ghost Vacuum 1 Beza, the Bounding Spring 1 Spectacular Tactics 2 Annul 2 Flashfreeze 1 Quantum Riddler 1 Petrified Hamlet

Across the last two Pro Tours, Zevin Faust has compiled an astonishing 17-3 Swiss record in Standard with an Azorius deck built around High Noon. This past weekend, he reached the Top 8 while going 7-0 against Izzet Prowess. It was a strong demonstration of what deep familiarity with a deck and precise execution can achieve. Azorius Prison posted only a middling win rate, but when a player knows their deck inside and out, especially when it is a relatively underexplored archetype, they can unlock a tremendous edge. Consider that your opponent can be at a seemingly safe 10 life, then be caught off guard and burned out by double High Noon activations via Starting Town. Lines like these don't come easily; they demand careful planning, deliberate setup, and exact sequencing.

High Noon [1b1XwCUx0rNZ6Uxu1lVvfY]
Voice of Victory

If you followed the events of Pro Tour Secrets of Strixhaven, you may have seen the deck referred to as "Azorius Tempo." At Faust's request, the deck has been renamed Azorius Prison, a name that accurately captures its methodical and restrictive nature. High Noon alone already places Izzet decks under severe constraints, preventing them from chaining multiple spells in a single turn. When combined with Voice of Victory, the opponent is effectively limited to a one-spell-per-turn cycle, effectively turning cards like Aven Interrupter and Aang, Swift Savior into counterspells on creatures. Spells that are plotted or airbent can't be recast as quickly as their owner would like. Meanwhile, Avatar's Wrath locks the opponent into casting only from their hand for a turn while conveniently resetting your own Aven Interrupter and Aang, Swift Savior for further disruption.

Skycoach Conductor [9HAkKRrmXqT8XKOIt7R6b]
Quantum Riddler [DcVXPTardYTwehtVUeYxw]

The deck has evolved since Pro Tour Lorwyn Eclipsed: Faust trimmed Seam Rip and Enduring Innocence to make room for Skycoach Conductor and Quantum Riddler. Skycoach Conductor's prepared spell, All Aboard, opens up a range of elegant interactions. You can activate Floodpits Drowner and blink it, saving your own creature while shuffling away your opponent's. Alternatively, you can reuse Aven Interrupter or Aang, Swift Savior; or blink a warped Quantum Riddler for additional value. Perfectly aligned with the deck's instant-speed strategy, Skycoach Conductor stands out as an excellent addition from Secrets of Strixhaven.

Rick Hup Beng Lee Crushed Standard

3 Bitter Triumph 2 Cavern of Souls 1 Day of Black Sun 1 Deadly Cover-Up 4 Deceit 2 Doomsday Excruciator 3 Emeritus of Ideation 4 Gloomlake Verge 1 Multiversal Passage 4 Requiting Hex 4 Restless Reef 1 Shoot the Sheriff 9 Swamp 1 Undercity Sewers 4 Watery Grave 4 Winternight Stories 4 Superior Spider-Man 1 Nowhere to Run 3 Overlord of the Balemurk 2 Harvester of Misery 2 Oildeep Gearhulk 1 Agatha's Soul Cauldron 1 Dauntless Scrapbot 2 Qarsi Revenant 1 Decorum Dissertation 4 Duress 2 Flashfreeze 1 Negate 1 Quantum Riddler 1 Strategic Betrayal 1 Deadly Cover-Up

Rick Hup Beng Lee deserves recognition for posting the best record in the Standard Swiss rounds of any competitor. His Draft rounds did not go his way, ultimately keeping him out of the Top 8, but his 9-1 Standard record with a spicy Dimir Excruciator list still stands out as one of the tournament's most impressive performances.

Overlord of the Balemurk
Emeritus of Ideation [2ALaz5gFvIvdUyuXpMrts1]

Notably, the Malaysian's version of the deck leverages Overlord of the Balemurk to set up both Superior Spider-Man and the newly printed Emeritus of Ideation. With Harvester of Misery and Oildeep Gearhulk also in the deck, the Overlord can often set up multiple powerful creatures. That modality lets the card truly shine in this deck. While these inclusions come at the cost of Stock Up, Strategic Betrayal, and Duress, which most other Dimir Excruciator decks played in the main deck, this more proactive approach gives the deck a distinct identity. In any case, the strength of its 9-1 Standard record is hard to ignore.

Mardu Discard Turns Heads

4 Concealed Courtyard 2 Erode 4 Iron-Shield Elf 2 Inspiring Vantage 3 Burst Lightning 1 Cecil, Dark Knight 4 Starting Town 4 Practiced Offense 1 Mountain 1 Shardmage's Rescue 1 Multiversal Passage 4 Moonshadow 4 Hardened Academic 4 Marauding Mako 4 Sacred Foundry 4 Cool but Rude 1 Blazemire Verge 3 Tersa Lightshatter 4 Bloodghast 4 Blood Crypt 1 Godless Shrine 1 Inti, Seneschal of the Sun 2 Strategic Betrayal 1 Seam Rip 1 Shoot the Sheriff 2 Case of the Crimson Pulse 1 Erode 3 Voice of Victory 4 Leyline of the Void

As a final notable newcomer, Mardu Discard delivered a quietly impressive showing. Three players from Team Main Phase registered the exact same 75 cards. Patricio Roman and Christopher Kral both finished the Standard rounds at 7-3, while Gavin Meagher went 4-6. Although the sample size is limited, their combined 61% win rate in non-mirror matches is difficult to ignore, especially as their list showcases Hardened Academic, an impressive new discard enabler from Secrets of Strixhaven.

Moonshadow [5l3AbU7aAoxjdjvFZY4GiI]
Cool but Rude
Hardened Academic [56yFRnqMuxqASNolQiFBEE]

Much like Iron-Shield Elf, it allows you to discard cards at will. This fuels interactions such as growing Marauding Mako and Moonshadow, triggering Cool but Rude for additional damage, or placing Bloodghast directly into the graveyard where it belongs. The redundancy in two-drop discard-enabling creatures is valuable, but Hardened Academic brings even more to the table.

With flying and lifelink, Hardened Academic excels in damage races. Moreover, it steadily accumulates +1/+1 counters whenever Bloodghast returns from the graveyard, whenever you flash back Practiced Offense, or whenever you exile a card with Tersa Lightshatter. The result is a deck that feels cohesive, aggressive, and synergistic. Based on its Pro Tour performance, Mardu Discard has graduated from being a fringe experiment to a legitimate contender.

What's Next for Standard?

Pro Tour Secrets of Strixhaven shook up the Standard metagame in unexpected ways. The most popular deck, Izzet Prowess, failed to convert its massive metagame share into a single Top 8 finish, while novel Selesnya decks took the field by storm. The metagame's trajectory over the coming weeks is once again wide open, making Standard all the more exciting.

If you're eager to test your skills in competitive Standard, then Magic Spotlight: Secrets offers the perfect opportunity. Each of these events awards awesome prizes, including eight invitations to the next Pro Tour. These events will be held in England on May 9–10 and in Japan on May 30–31. This coming weekend, you can follow Fanfinity's livestream from London on Twitch and YouTube, where I'll make sure that the most exciting decks from the top tables are selected for the feature matches.

Meanwhile, the upcoming cycle of Regional Championships will also feature Standard. In these marquee events, the top players in each region will compete for cash prizes, special promos, and coveted invitations to Pro Tour Magic: The Gathering® | Marvel Super Heroes. The schedule (with links to Melee event pages), is as follows:

Winners of each Regional Championship, along with finalists from events held in the United States, Canada, Europe, and Japan, will also secure their spots for Magic World Championship 32. Select Regional Championship events will feature live video coverage, while tournament results will be posted on Magic.gg and the Play Magic social media channels. The coming weeks promise to be a fascinating stretch of Standard tournaments, with plenty more lessons still to be learned.

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