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Metagame Mentor: The Modern Decks to Beat at 2024 Regional Championships

January 25, 2024
Frank Karsten

Editor's Note: The dates for the Mexico, Central America, and Caribbean Regional Championship taking place in early 2024 has been corrected.

Hello, and welcome back to Metagame Mentor, your weekly guide to the top decks and latest Constructed developments on the path to the Pro Tour. Following a thrilling cycle of Modern Regional Championship Qualifiers in 2023, the corresponding championships are kicking off this weekend! The largest Regional Championships will feature up to 18 rounds of Modern competition before a winner is crowned, allowing archetype experts and format specialists to rise to the top.

The Modern Regional Championship schedule is split across four weekends:

With invitations to Pro Tour Thunder Junction and World Championship 30 on the line, as well as promo cards and monetary prizes ($100,000 in Europe and $130,000 in the U.S.A.), these Regional Championships are important events. The championships on February 10–11 will also be one of the first times to see Murders at Karlov Manor cards in action, as the new set becomes immediately Modern-legal following its prerelease weekend on February 3–4. With fierce competition featuring some of the best Modern players in each region, this cycle of Regional Championships is bound to be an exciting one!

In the remainder of this article, we'll take a closer look at the top 20 decks in Modern right now, getting you up to speed on the state of the post-ban format going into the Regional Championships.

The Modern Metagame in January 2024

Modern is a nonrotating 60-card format that was introduced in 2011 and has captured the hearts of Magic: The Gathering players worldwide ever since. It allows expansion sets, core sets, and straight-to-Modern sets from Eight Edition forward, with the exception of cards on the banned list. With over 20 years of card history, Modern has a deeper card pool than Standard or Pioneer, featuring intricate card interactions and a vast array of viable strategies.

Since the number of published Magic Online decklists has ramped up recently, I was able to analyze an enormous stack of nearly 5,000 Modern decklists from the first three weeks of January. Specifically, I used all published Magic Online decklists from January 1 through January 22, in addition to published decklists from the $20K RCQ and $10K RCQ at SCG CON Cincinnati, the Super Qualifier at F2F Toronto, the Magic Online Champions Showcase, and the Modern event at the Dutch Open Series.

To obtain a metric that combines popularity and performance, I awarded points to each deck equal to its rectified number of net wins (i.e., its number of match wins minus losses if positive and zero otherwise). So, a deck that went 6-1 gets 5 points, and a deck that went 1-3-drop gets 0 points. Each archetype's share of total rectified net wins can then be interpreted as its share of the winner's metagame that you can expect to see at the top tables.

Archetype Winner's Metagame Share
1. Rakdos Grief 15.3%
2. Golgari Yawgmoth 13.8%
3. Temur Rhinos 12.4%
4. Izzet Murktide 9.4%
5. Amulet Titan 7.6%
6. Living End 4.6%
7. Hardened Scales 3.9%
8. Four-Color Omnath 2.9%
9. Mono-Black Coffers 2.5%
10. Azorius Control 1.9%
11. Asmo Food 1.8%
12. Five-Color Creativity 1.7%
13. Domain Zoo 1.7%
14. Hammer Time 1.7%
15. Boros Burn 1.6%
16. Merfolk 1.5%
17. Mono-Green Tron 1.4%
18. Dimir Mill 0.9%
19. Grixis Wizards 0.7%
20. Jund Sagavan 0.7%
21. Other 12.1%

In this table, each archetype name hyperlinks to a well-performing, representative decklist. The "Other" category included Temur Prowess, Orzhov Grief, 8-Rack, Goryo's Blink, Izzet Wizards, Azorius Martyr, Dimir Shadow, Heliod Ballista, Grixis Murktide, Four-Color Control, Temur Murktide, Twiddle Breach, Esper Control, Mono-Black Grief, Dimir Control, Gruul Sagavan, Four-Color Rhinos, Jeskai Breach, and various other decks. The number of competitively viable Modern archetypes remains enormous, and you can basically play any style of deck you want. Since Modern rewards deep format knowledge and experience, a skilled player who is well-versed in their deck's interactions and matchup strategies can win with almost everything.

The format was recently shaken up by the December 4 banning of Fury and Up the Beanstalk. Despite the ban of Fury, the big metagame story is that the previously dominant Rakdos Grief deck is Not Dead After All. Without Fury, the evoke strategy is less consistent, less popular, and less well-rounded than before, but the double-discard play on turn one remains very powerful. Rakdos Grief can still cause substantial grief to opponents, and it's the prime deck to beat going into the Regional Championships.

Based mostly on Magic Online events in the first weeks of January, the top four decks (Rakdos Grief, Golgari Yawmogth, Temur Rhinos, and Izzet Murktide) comprise over 50% of the top-table field. These decks have tuned their card choices and sideboards for the metagame; and as a result, the head-to-head matchups between these four decks are all close to 50-50. Typically, playing skill and matchup experience is the real difference-maker. I look forward to seeing what will happen when top competitors at the Regional Championship get to test their mettle and try to attack this metagame.

Orcish Bowmasters Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer Misty Rainforest Lightning Bolt 489782

The defining staples of the format (specifically, the most-played cards across all main decks and sideboards) were Orcish Bowmasters; Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer; Misty Rainforest; Lightning Bolt; and Thoughtseize. In Modern, it's essential to have a solid plan for dealing with Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer on turn one, and Orcish Bowmasters is one of the best possible answers.

The Top 20 Modern Decks to Defeat

To take a closer look at the top 20 archetypes with the highest winner's metagame share, I've used a decklist aggregation algorithm that considers the popularity and performance of individual card choices.

Rakdos Grief was the dominant Modern deck of 2023, and it will be interesting to see how things develop in 2024. The deck won Pro Tour The Lord of the Rings in July and subsequently dominated the Modern RCQ cycle, clinching 27.5% of the winner's metagame in November. Although it no longer has access to Fury, the aggregate list has replaced 4 Fury and 1 Undying Evil with 2 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse, 2 Fatal Push, and 1 Magus of the Moon, resulting in a solid midrange build. The best draws with a returned Grief on turn one remain, and Rakdos Grief currently has a 15.3% share of the winner's metagame.

Ideally, you evoke Grief on turn one, discard your opponent's Lightning Bolt with the evoke trigger still on the stack, and return it with Not Dead After All. Roughly once every seven opening hands are capable of this dreaded sequence, and it results in a 4/3 menace with another discard trigger attached. Another way in which Rakdos Grief prevents opponents from casting spells is with Magus of the Moon and/or Blood Moon. If your deck is vulnerable to those effects, then make sure to fetch basic lands when you can.

Rakdos Grief's interactive shell, headlined by Thoughtseize and recently boosted by Molten Collapse from The Last Caverns of Ixalan, makes it well-suited to defeat combo decks such as Amulet Titan or Living End. However, it does not go unchallenged.

A returned Grief can be answered by cards like Stern Scolding, Veil of Summer, Stone of Erech, or Leyline of Sanctity. An even better way to obtain a good matchup against the deck is by leveraging individually strong card advantage engines like Urza's Saga. In particular, Hardened Scales is one of the best ways to beat Rakdos Grief, as the black-red spot removal spells can't answer enchantments, line up poorly against token generators, and struggle against creatures with ward or modular.

Golgari Yawgmoth, with a 13.8% share of the winner's metagame, combines undying creatures and Yawgmoth, Thran Physician to generate card advantage and achieve infinite combos. In 2023, the archetype gained Delighted Halfling, Orcish Bowmasters, and Agatha's Soul Cauldron, unlocking powerful upgrades. Moreover, Golgari Yawgmoth was one of the largest benefactors of the ban of Fury. Without having to worry that an opponent could sweep all of its low-toughness creatures for the cost of zero mana, the deck became better positioned than ever and quickly grew in popularity. This has led to the rise of Cursed Totem as one of the most-played sideboard cards in Modern right now.

When playing against Yawgmoth, it's important to be aware of its potential for infinite loops. One such loop can be achieved with Yawgmoth, Thran Physician and two copies of Young Wolf, one with a +1/+1 counter and another without. When Yawgmoth sacrifices the counter-less creature, it returns with a +1/+1 counter. The other receives a -1/-1 counter, which cancels out against its +1/+1 counter. This can be repeated to draw lots of cards, and Blood Artist wins the game on the spot. Keep an eye out for these game-winning loops and try to disrupt them as soon as possible.

Temur Rhinos, with a 12.4% share of the winner's metagame, has a straightforward game plan: cast Shardless Agent or Violent Outburst on turn three to cascade into Crashing Footfalls, unleashing a horde of 4/4 Rhinos to overpower your opponent. Despite the cascade restriction, the deck contains a surprising amount of cheap interaction, such as Fire // Ice, Force of Negation, Subtlety, and Dead // Gone. Rhinos fares well against Amulet Titan but struggles against Living End and Hardened Scales. Chalice of the Void and Engineered Explosives for X=0 can also pose a challenge after sideboard. Nevertheless, Temur Rhinos has a consistent and proactive game plan in every matchup, making it an excellent deck choice for newcomers to the format.

Tishana's Tidebinder is the most-played new-to-Modern card from The Lost Caverns of Ixalan, and Temur Rhinos is one of the decks that make good use of it. Modern features a plethora of activated or triggered abilities to counter, making the list of applications nearly endless. For example, Tishana's Tidebinder hits fetch lands, nullifies Chalice of the Void, stops the protection ability and card draw engine of The One Ring, and counters cascade on Violent Outburst. It also answers Engineered Explosives, Amulet of Vigor, Leyline Binding, and so on. It's even a Wizard for Flame of Anor! Its versatility has no limits, and Temur Rhinos is a perfect home.

Izzet Murktide, with a 9.4% share of the winner's metagame, is a powerful archetype that combines cheap cantrips, efficient interaction, and powerful threats. The card advantage and velocity provided by Expressive Iteration quickly turns Murktide Regent into a two-mana 8/8 flier. Due to its reliance on card draw and one-toughness creatures, the archetype can struggle against Orcish Bowmasters, but careful resource management and competent sequencing can get around it.

When playing against Izzet Murktide, it's important to keep in mind that they run a lot of permission spells. If your opponent is keeping two mana open, then consider testing the waters with a medium threat first if you don't want your best card to meet a Counterspell. Most Izzet Murktide players also play Spell Pierce. If your opponent is conspicuously holding a single blue mana open, it may be better to cast a creature spell instead. However, you might also walk right into Stern Scolding or Subtlety, so weigh your options carefully.

Amulet Titan, with a 7.6% share of the winner's metagame, is an intricate ramp deck that exploits the synergy between Amulet of Vigor and bounce lands like Simic Growth Chamber to power out Primeval Titan. After you resolve Primeval Titan, there are a variety of ways to seal the game. With Amulet of Vigor in play, Primeval Titan can grab Slayers' Stronghold and Boros Garrison and attack right away. If Dryad of the Ilysian Grove is on the battlefield, you can fetch Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle, and burn your opponent to a crisp. Even if the opponent has a spot removal spell, the deck still has a way out by picking up Tolaria West with Simic Growth Chamber, transmuting it into Summoner's Pact, and grabbing another Primeval Titan. Mastering this deck requires a deep understanding of the various lines of play available, making it a challenging, rewarding endeavor.

The year 2023 was good to Amulet Titan, as it gained The Mycosynth Gardens, The One Ring, and most recently, Spelunking. The new card from The Lost Caverns of Ixalan card adds redundancy to the strategy by ramping you and providing an untap effect, acting like an Explore stapled to an Amulet of Vigor. Bolstered by the addition of Spelunking, Amulet Titan has a good matchup against decks low on interaction, such as Hardened Scales, but it still struggles against Blood Moon decks like Rakdos Grief and Temur Rhinos. Speaking of Blood Moon, there are two notable interactions to remember. Firstly, since Dryad of the Ilysian Grove and Blood Moon change land types in the same layer, the result is based on time stamps: the last-played one "wins." Secondly, Blood Moon doesn't just turn off Urza's Saga—it kills it. Indeed, it turns into a Mountain Saga without chapter abilities, so it will be sacrificed as a state-based action.

Living End, with a 4.6% share of the winner's metagame, is a combo deck that aims to cycle several creatures and then cascade into Living End, wiping all creatures from the battlefield while returning all the cyclers. The deck has Violent Outburst and Shardless Agent as guaranteed cascade cards, effectively giving the deck eight one-card combo pieces, along with numerous cyclers to consistently find them. Living End excels against creature-based decks like Golgari Yawgmoth and Temur Rhinos. However, it is vulnerable to anti-cascade cards, such as Chalice of the Void, and it's susceptible to anti-graveyard effects like Endurance or Leyline of the Void.

When playing against Living End, remember that sometimes your creatures are better dead than alive. Destroying or sacrificing your own creatures in response to Living End is often a good course of action. In particular, Dauthi Voidwalker is best left untapped to be sacrificed at a moment's notice, as it will return to the battlefield, exile Living End, and allow you to cast Living End on the next turn, putting all of your creatures back to where they were while getting rid of your opponent's. Partly due to this interaction, Rakdos Grief is a difficult matchup for Living End.

Hardened Scales, with a 3.9% share of the winner's metagame, is a complicated deck whose best draws explode in a combo-like way. By putting +1/+1 counters from Arcbound Ravager onto Walking Ballista, you can produce lethal damage out of thin air. Although Hardened Scales can struggle against Amulet Titan, especially when they draw Force of Vigor after sideboard, it's heavily favored against Rakdos Grief. Rakdos Grief players have a hard time answering Hardened Scales or Agatha's Soul Cauldron, and their removal spells line up poorly against the ward on Patchwork Automaton, modular on Zabaz, the Glimmerwasp, and tokens from Hangarback Walker or Urza's Saga.

Hardened Scales is one of the most difficult decks to play in Modern, but learning the deck's intricacies can pay off. A new addition is Echoing Deeps from The Lost Caverns of Ixalan. It can always add colorless mana, which is useful in an artifact-heavy deck, and it has the upside of copying Urza's Saga after all of its chapters have completed. This allows you to continue the stream of Construct tokens into the mid-game.

Four-Color Omnath uses the namesake card Omnath, Locus of Creation in conjunction with fetch lands to trigger it multiple times per turn. Along with efficient interactive spells and powerful planeswalkers, the deck can generate tons of value. Since it has access to four colors, the individual card quality is top-notch.

Following the ban of Up the Beanstalk and Fury, Four-Color Omnath had to be reworked from the ground up. Delighted Halfling has returned, ramping into a turn-two Teferi, Time Raveler or turn-three The One Ring while dodging Force of Negation. In addition, the most prominent versions that have found success in recent weeks have incorporated Nissa, Resurgent Animist, providing access to even more copies of Omnath, Locus of Creation and Solitude.

Mono-Black Coffers uses Cabal Coffers alongside Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth to produce large amounts of mana early on. The mana can be sunk into an enormous March of Wretched Sorrow or into powerful artifacts grabbed from the sideboard by Karn, the Great Creator. Karn also facilitates seven effective copies of The One Ring.

When playing against Mono-Black Coffers, remember that they have Field of Ruin and Demolition Field to destroy your nonbasic lands. These land destruction abilities can now be activated as early as turn two, thanks to Sunken Citadel from The Lost Caverns of Ixalan. Sequence your lands with these effects in mind; for example, leave basic lands in your deck and don't expose a key ability land until you're ready to use it.

Azorius Control includes all the hallmarks of a traditional control deck: spot removal, countermagic, card draw, sweepers, and planeswalkers. Since most versions already use Zagoth Triome and Raugrin Triome to unlock Leyline Binding and Prismatic Ending, it's easy to splash for cards like Fire // Ice, resulting in quite a lot of variability across versions. There are also Azorius Control builds that incorporate the combo of Narset, Parter of Veils and Day's Undoing.

Regardless of their exact card choices, if your opponent reveals Kaheera, the Orphanguard as their companion, then it's most likely that they're on Azorius Control. When playing against them, you always have to be mindful of sweepers and countermagic. Avoid overextending your threats into Supreme Verdict and don't expect all of your spells to resolve.

Asmo Food revolves around Asmoranomardicadaistinaculdacar, which searches for The Underworld Cookbook. The artifact loops with Ovalchase Daredevil to create a Food token every turn, which in turn feeds the activated ability of, well, let's just call her Asmo. There are a lot of different shells for this core engine. For example, there are versions with Sarinth Steelseeker, with Stalactite Stalker, with Ledger Shredder, with Emry, Lurker of the Loch, and so on. However, the most prominent build over the past few weeks is black-red, using Inti, Seneschal of the Sun from The Lost Caverns of Ixalan as an additional discard outlet for Asmo that synergizes with The Underworld Cookbook's activation cost.

When playing against this particular build of the deck, you should recognize that they have quite a bit of direct damage. The combination of Galvanic Blast and Lighting Bolt can take you from 7 to 0 in an instant, so protect your life total and don't take damage unnecessarily.

Five-Color Creativity is a combo deck that aims to put Archon of Cruelty onto the battlefield by using the namesake card in combination with Dwarven Mine tokens. The deck's ability to use any fetch land to grab Dwarven Mine makes it acts like a one-card combo.

When playing against Indomitable Creativity, make sure to keep up removal as they go into their fourth turn. If you can remove a Dwarf token in response to Transmogrify or Indomitable Creativity for X=1, then their spell will fizzle with no effect. As a result, it can sometimes be better to hold on to Orcish Bowmasters rather than running it out at the earliest opportunity on turn two.

Domain Zoo is a disruptive aggro deck that uses Triomes to power up Territorial Kavu and Scion of Draco. These creatures can attack for four or five early on, turn Stubborn Denial into a hard counter, and will quickly put your opponent within Tribal Flames range. Recently, Nishoba Brawler has become favored over Orcish Bowmasters in the two-drop slot.

When playing against Domain Zoo, it can be useful to know that Tishana's Tidebinder and Dress Down effectively kill Territorial Kavu by removing the ability that defines its power and toughness, turning it into a 0/0.

Hammer Time treats the metagame like a nail. With the help of Sigarda's Aid, Puresteel Paladin, or Forge Anew, it avoids the enormous equip cost on Colossus Hammer, creating a gigantic attacker. A turn-two kill is even possible with Sigarda's Aid and Ornithopter on turn one, followed by double Colossus Hammer on turn two. However, turn three or turn four kills are more realistic, especially when cards such as Urza's Saga and Stoneforge Mystic are used to find the Hammer. The most prominent version of Hammer Time is mono-white with Solitude and Emeria's Call, but there are also versions that do not feature this pitch synergy, especially ones that splash blue for Spell Pierce.

When playing against this deck, it's important to be aware of the interaction between Colossus Hammer and Inkmoth Nexus. When Nexus becomes equipped with Hammer, it loses flying, but if its animation ability is activated again, Nexus will regain flying, so a ground-based chump blocker may not save you. Also, beware of the sneaky Mana Tithe in the sideboard!

Burn has been a staple of the Modern format since its inception, preying on painful fetch-shock mana bases. The goal is to unleash a flurry of direct damage as quickly as possible, with an ideal opening hand featuring a turn one Goblin Guide, turn two double Lava Spike, and turn three triple Lightning Bolt for a staggering 21 damage. Although many Burn players adopted main deck Roiling Vortex over Eidolon of the Great Revel in 2023, this trend has reversed after the ban of Fury. Eidolon of the Great Revel has reclaimed its place in the main deck.

When playing against Burn, be mindful of your life total. Think twice before you pay 2 life for shock lands and try to bolster your life total by exiling your own creatures with Solitude or grabbing Shadowspear with Urza's Saga. Another thing to keep in mind is the timing of your fetch lands against Goblin Guide. If you want to maximize the probability to draw a spell in your next draw step, then fetch in response to the trigger. This way, you'll only fail to draw a spell if the top two cards of your deck are both lands. If you need lands instead, then wait until after the Goblin Guide trigger resolves; this allows you to shuffle if you reveal a spell on top.

Merfolk is an archetype that has been around since the inception of the game, as the original Lord of Atlantis dates all the way back to Alpha. The deck uses Aether Vial to power out a curve of cheap Merfolk, many of which disrupt the opponent's lands or remove abilities from their creatures. Merfolk benefited greatly from the ban of Fury. Now that its low-toughness creatures are no longer kept in check, the deck has been on an upward trend.

Most Merfolk players have adopted Tishana's Tidebinder and Deeproot Pilgrimage from The Lost Caverns of Ixalan. The enchantment produces a school of fish that grow with each additional attacking Merfolk lord, and the tokens can also fuel Vodalian Hexcatcher activations.

Mono-Green Tron is a ramp deck centered around Urza's Mine, Urza's Tower, and Urza's Tower. This powerful trio of lands was first dubbed the "Urzatron" in the 90s, as a reference to the Voltron TV series in which robots combine to become stronger. Together, the lands enable you to ramp into powerful cards like Wurmcoil Engine or Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger ahead of time. If your land search spells get discarded or countered, then The One Ring and Karn, the Great Creator are good turn-four plays that allow you to play a reasonable control game.

When playing against Mono-Green Tron, remember that Chromatic Sphere works differently than Chromatic Star. If your opponent cracks Chromatic Star, then you can respond by casting Orcish Bowmasters or Tishana's Tidebinder, growing your Orc Army or countering the card draw trigger. However, Chromatic Sphere's card draw effect is tied to a mana ability, which you cannot respond to. So, when your opponent casts Chromatic Sphere while you hold Orcish Bowmasters, make sure to play it while the artifact spell is on the stack.

Dimir Mill has the straightforward game plan of depleting the opponent's library as quickly as possible. When you control both Hedron Crab and Ruin Crab, every fetch land removes one-fifth of your opponent's starting library, and sorceries like Fractured Santiy or Tasha's Hideous Laughter will yield similar effects.

When playing against this deck, make sure not to walk into Archive Trap unnecessarily. If you can avoid fetching, then that could make a big difference. However, if your opponent controls Field of Ruin, they can eventually force you to shuffle anyway.

Grixis Wizards is a relatively new archetype centered around Flame of Anor. With Snapcaster Mage, Tishana's Tidebinder, and even Mutavault to satisfy the Wizard clause, the blue-red instant will provide a lot of value. Apart from that, the deck plays similar to an Izzet Murktide deck that cares more about creature types than graveyard synergies, with a black splash for Orcish Bowmasters.

Tishana's Tidebinder provides ample opportunities to leverage your rules knowledge. For example, if you face a suspended Crashing Footfalls and counter the "when the last time counter is removed, cast it without paying its mana cost" trigger, that you can bask in the knowledge that Crashing Footfalls will remain exiled forever. Likewise, if you counter Fable of the Mirror-Breaker's third chapter ability, then the Saga will not transform and will be put into the graveyard as a state-based action. A different thing to be aware of is that after Tishana's Tidebinder has removed all abilities from a creature, that creature can still gain and keep new abilities with later time stamps, say via Agatha's Soul Cauldron or Not Dead After All. The ultimate judge stumper is what happens when you counter the "return to hand" trigger of a dashed Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer. In my understanding of the rules, the source of this delayed triggered ability is the spell that Ragavan was, not an ability that was granted to the creature permanent. This means that Ragavan won't lose his abilities. He retains haste and can even block Gingerbrute later on.

A portmanteau of Urza's Saga and Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer, Jund Sagavan is a midrange deck with efficient threats, spot removal, and discard spells. Featuring iconic cards like Tarmogoyf, which will often grow into a 7/8, the deck evokes memories of Modern's decade-old past. Moving to cards from more recent years, Jund Sagavan is one of the only decks that exploits both Wrenn and Six and Urza's Saga. By continually recurring the powerful land, you'll obtain formidable staying power in long games.

When playing against Jund Sagavan, don't cast Lightning Bolt on a 2/3 Tarmogoyf when the graveyard features only lands and sorceries. Creatures with lethal damage marked on them are not destroyed until state-based actions are checked, and Lightning Bolt will go to the graveyard before. By the time state-based actions are checked, Tarmogoyf will survive as a 3/4 with 3 damage marked on it.

Looking Ahead

Archetype experts and Modern specialists will have an exciting opportunity to prove their skills at the upcoming cycle of Regional Championships, and I can't wait to analyze the results of these tournaments. Regional Championships will use open decklists, and you can follow the action of this weekend's Regional Championships in Europe and Brazil on their hyperlinked Melee pages. We'll also publish event updates on our Twitter account during the weekend and on our Events page in the week after.

The European Championship will be streamed live on the LegacyEuropeanTour channel, with expert commentary by Will Hall, Filipa Carola, Martin Jůza, and Filip Skórnicki. Coverage starts at 3 a.m. ET / 9 a.m. CET / 5 p.m. JST both days, showing off the first of many high-level competitive Magic offerings in 2024.

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