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Mythic Championship IV Day 2 Metagame Breakdown

July 27, 2019
Frank Karsten

A crowd of 457 players registered for the tournament, but only 289 of them (56.7%) stayed enrolled after reaching a 4-4 or better record—the requirement to qualify for the second day. Theoretically, someone could have gone 1-4 in Modern and stayed alive on the back of a 3-0 draft record, while another player might have been 3-2 in Modern but eliminated due to an 0-3 draft. Nevertheless, there is an obvious correlation between a good Modern deck and making Day Two.

Yesterday, the six most popular archetypes were Hogaak, Izzet Phoenix, Eldrazi Tron, W/U Control, Humans, and Jund. Today, the picture is pretty much the same. Here are the raw numbers.

Archetype Day 1 players Day 1% Day 2 players Day 2 % Conversion
Hogaak 98 21.4% 70 24.2% 71.4%
Izzet Phoenix 48 10.5% 31 10.7% 64.6%
Eldrazi Tron 42 9.2% 28 9.7% 66.7%
W/U Control 38 8.3% 24 8.3% 63.2%
Humans 38 8.3% 23 8.0% 60.5%
Jund 36 7.9% 22 7.6% 61.1%
Tron 19 4.2% 10 3.5% 52.6%
Urza ThopterSword 19 4.2% 10 3.5% 52.6%
Burn 18 3.9% 12 4.2% 66.7%
Dredge 17 3.7% 11 3.8% 64.7%
Mono-Red Phoenix 10 2.2% 6 2.1% 60.0%
Hogaak Dredge 7 1.5% 4 1.4% 57.1%
R/G Valakut 6 1.3% 4 1.4% 66.7%
Neobrand 5 1.1% 2 0.7% 40.0%
Hardened Scales 4 0.9% 3 1.0% 75.0%
Bogles 3 0.7% 3 1.0% 100.0%
Cheerios 3 0.7% 1 0.3% 33.3%
Hollow One 3 0.7% 3 1.0% 100.0%
Mardu Pyromancers 3 0.7% 3 1.0% 100.0%
SnowShift 3 0.7% 0 0.0% 0.0%
The Rock 3 0.7% 1 0.3% 33.3%
Other 34 7.4% 18 6.2% 52.9%

The last column displays the Day 2 conversion rate, which represents the percentage of players who made Day 2 with a certain type of deck.

In the "Other" category, it's notable that both Goblins players advanced and that both Mardu Shadow players advanced. Moreover, the single Devoted Abundance player and the single Unexpected Emrakul player also made it through. There's definitely some spice in Day 2.

But if we focus on archetypes with five or more pilots, then the best conversion rate was for ... Hogaak.

I do have to warn that conversion rate is a muddy statistic. The competition also features draft, and an 8-0 player is counted in the same way as a 4-4 player. The win rates of archetypes in the Modern rounds is more informative, and I will have these numbers for you after all Swiss rounds conclude. But the early indication is that Hogaak overperformed so far.

Will this trend continue? And which decks well end up in the Top 8? Check back later to see how everything shook out, and of course, watch the action live at twitch.tv/Magic!

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